Conservapedia vs Evolution: Vol 5

In volume 4 of this ridiculous series, I addressed Conservapedia's claim that the second law of thermodynamics was a counterexample to evolution. Click here to read that. (Same window)

This time, Conservapedia shifts from thermodynamics to mathematics. Let's see what they have to say about the Law of Large Numbers:

"The Law of Large Numbers states that things tend to revert to their average over time (the large number of examples), while evolution requires the opposite: that things become more complex and depart further from their average over time."

To understand the Law of Large Numbers, take a six sided die and begin rolling it. It can only land on 1-6, with 3.5 being the average. You might get a series of 'runs' where your average outcome is 1 or 2, but after a few hundred rolls, your average will grow closer and closer to 3.5.

Refuting the central point...

The claim "evolution requires...that things become more complex" isn't true. Evolution is just small changes over large periods of time. The process we call Natural Selection does usually result in things becoming more complex, but natural selection has more to do with how likely traits are to pass on.

Graham's Hierarchy of Disagreement

Some researchers believe that sponges may have evolved from more complex ancestors by becoming simpler [1], but counterexamples aren't necessary after refuting a central point.

TLDR; Evolution does not require growth in complexity, and The Law of Large Numbers applies to Evolution differently because parameters change. Evolution IS change. 

But how do parameters change throughout evolution? Let's take our six sided die. We'll let the D-6 represent a specific gene in wolves; a gene for aggression. Let's let each numbered side represent how strongly that gene is expressed. Roll the die 10 times. Each roll represents a wolf in our pack, and each outcome represents how aggressive that particular wolf is.

Wolves with traits 1 and 2 are more vicious, cruel, and are very likely to kill for food without a second thought. Wolves with traits 5 and 6 are less confrontational. They're less likely to kill for food, and more likely to stealthily steal meat from the other wolves. Wolves with traits 1 and 2 are better fighters, but wolves with traits 5 and 6 are more inclined to avoid fights.

So far, all wolves in this tribe have an equal chance of surviving, and passing on their genes. The parameters representing their aggression remain 1-6.

But meat has become scarce, and they have no choice but to find new territory. They claim land neighbored by humans. They grow hungry.

Our wolves with traits 1 and 2 immediately go for the humans. These guys readied their guns, and most of them are shot. However, the less aggressive wolves wait, and are fed by sneaking unattended food.


Wolves with traits 3 and 4 are slightly confrontational and not very sneaky, so most of them are eventually shot. Due to these environmental changes, wolves with traits 5 and 6 now greatly outnumber the others. Wolves with these traits are significantly more likely to breed, so the next generation of wolves are less aggressive than the original pack.

When we roll a D-6, we have solid parameters. Every outcome will be a random number between 1-6. The average outcome will always drift towards 3.5. But genes aren't so random in the same sense. They're self replicating, and certain traits are likely to be passed on from parents. With our wolf pack, the parameters associated with aggressiveness changed. The average aggressiveness in these wolves is getting closer to 5.5 with every pup born. The average will drift as survival dictates. When aggression is needed, the parameters change again. This goes for every trait; speed, boldness, temperature sensitivity, cuteness, etc.

Clearly, the Law of Large numbers doesn't apply to evolution in the same sense as the author suggests.

Want more? Next time: Is Evolution untrue because a historically recorded ancient flood conflict with the fossil record? (Placeholder)
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Originally posted on Blogspot.com/RationalJesse.
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[1]
http://phys.org/news/2012-09-evolution-meant-simpler-complex.html#jCp